Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
