🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.