Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
